বৃহস্পতিবার, ৩১ অক্টোবর, ২০১৩

3 Steps to Day Trade an FOMC Breakout

Talking Points
  • Trading a breakout strategy affords many benefits when day trading.
  • Order placement can be aided through the use of Camarilla Pivots.
  • Learn to place stops and limits using support and resistance.
Trading intraday breakouts continues to be a favorite methodology for trading news events such as todays FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) rate decision. While rate expectations are forecasted to remain the same, it can increase the possibility of a price breakout on pairs such as the EURUSD later this afternoon. Breakout traders will enjoy the advantages of having clear points of entry through the use of support and resistance, all while having the ability to trade the news with either market or entry orders.
Sound good? Today, we will cover a 3 step process to day trading the EURUSD using pivot points. Let’s get started!
Learn Forex: EURUSD 30Minute with Pivots
ক্যাপশন যুক্ত করুন

Apply Pivot Points
While this first step may seem like a no brainer, it is important to add pivots to the graph so we can trade them! Camarilla pivots used in the example above, are available to traders through FXCMs Marketscope 2.0 charts. Camarilla pivots are designed to show key levels of support and resistance which can be perfect for identifying a potential Forex breakout!
When using Camarilla pivots for a breakout, traders should keep an eye on the S4 (support) and R4 (resistance lines). These areas are identified as market extremes and in the event that momentum pushes price through either of these levels, traders will want a plan of action to trade their favorite pairs.
Place Your Entry Orders
Once key intraday levels of support and resistance are found, trading a breakout is a fairly straightforward process. Traders will look for a strong continuation to the upside in the event price moves through resistance, prompting new Buy positions. Conversely, if price cracks S4 support traders will look to sell continued downward price momentum.
It should be noted that traders can execute a breakout strategy using entry orders, or by placing a market order. Market order traders have the luxury of being in front of the computer. This allows traders to enter immediately, or wait for a candle close for confirmation if preferred. Entry orders allow traders to set orders and walk away from their computer. If either S4 or R4 is broken, they will be ready to enter into the market at the best prevailing price. If you choose to trade with entry orders, consider an OCO order. This way, an entry to buy can be placed above the R4 pivot, and an entry to sell below S4.
Manage Risk and TakeProfit
As you can see breakouts can be an easy and effective way to approach short term trading the Forex market. However, it is important to note that false breakouts can and will occur! Traders should always prepare for price moving against their entry through the use of a stop order. The use of Camarilla pivots can also make the process of risk management easier.
In the example below, we have set up a potential breakout on the EURUSD above R4 resistance. A stop has been placed at R3, for a 20 pip stop loss. From here, traders can extrapolate a positive risk reward ratio of their choosing. Looking to gain more profit in a winning trade, limits are to be set at least 40 pips away from the breakout entry. This would setup a preferred 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio.



Conclusion
Using a day trading methodology to trade breakouts can be made easier through the application of Camarilla Pivots. Remember that this strategy is broken down into 3 essential components and can be useful when the market approaches a potentially volatile economic event.
Following this 3 step strategy will allow for traders to identify and execute an easy to follow breakout strategy. The next part of the equation is to then determine your trade size. For more on that, follow this three step guide to determine your trade size.

বুধবার, ৩০ অক্টোবর, ২০১৩

GBPUSD setback far from damaging whilst above 1.5885; risk still higher through 1.6255



  • A notable Tuesday dip, but still resilient digestion whilst above chart props at 1.5895/85
  • We favour consolidation through midweek, but still see the skewed threat of a re-energized bull theme with the 1.6255 Sept peak key.
  • Only below 1.5885 signals a bear shift.


WHAT CHANGES THIS?
Upside: Above the peak at 1.6255 re-energizes upside pressures through the cycle high, 1.6382 with overshoot risk into Nov towards a 2011 failure peak at 1.6617
Downside: Below 1.5895/85 signals a more notable bearish reversal down to chart/ pivot supports at 1.5775/50/10.


Weekly GBPUSD


What to Expect From Your Forex Account ?

As they place trades & orders in our account, keep in mind that your strategy of when to place orders is THE technique & do not require over emphasize each pip, trade, or market movement. Each trade is of a thousand insignificant trades. Trading is a game of three steps forward then two steps backward. When you expect perfection, you will be disappointed. Therefore, expect losing trades.

You may be wondering, how plenty of losses are needed to become a better winner?
A common misconception is that a strategy's success hinges on a high win ratio. That is basically not true. A number of the best strategies win only 40-50% of the time.
What is a lovely win ratio? There is no grand formula. It is not a size fits all approach, but choose the strategy's edge using the win ratio. Then confidently trade your technique & let the market's emotions choose the result of the trade.
Finally, expect losses to be incurred & prepare for them through low leverage so all of your equity is preserved.

EURUSD Retraces

EURUSD – Euro/dollar retraces

The EURUSD has begun retracing lower over the last two days as the uptrend takes a rest for now. We still consider the uptrend in place whilst this market is trading above 1.3650 on a daily closing basis, as mentioned in this week’s weekly price action outlook, and we can watch for price action buy signals from support as this market rotates lower, in order to trade in-line with the existing uptrend.

বুধবার, ২৩ অক্টোবর, ২০১৩

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সোমবার, ২১ অক্টোবর, ২০১৩

Weekly Trading Forecast: Focus Remains on US Risk as NFPs Print Tuesday

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Traders Link Long-Term Trend to Key NFPs Release

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) dropped 1.2 percent this past week – the sixth drop in seven weeks.

Euro Forecast – Euro Gaining versus Dollar but Struggling Elsewhere amid Middling Data

The Euro failed to capitalize on bolstered risk flows thanks to a medium-term resolution to the US fiscal deadlock, although it did manage to make significant progress towards its yearly highs ($1.3710 on February 1) against the US Dollar by the end of the week ($1.3704 on October 18).

British Pound Forecast -British Pound Looks Dangerously Overstretched - How do We Trade

The British Pound surged versus the downtrodden US Dollar and yet finished just short of year-to-date peaks.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Strength to Be Undermined by Slowing Inflation

The Japanese Yen regained its footing against the dollar, with the USDJPY slipping back below the 98.00 handle, and the pair may continue to give back the rebound from earlier this month as it carves a lower high just below the 99.00 region.

Gold Forecast - Gold Eyes Monthly High Ahead of NFPs as Bearish Momentum Falters

Gold prices rallied 3.24% this week with the precious metal trading at $1313 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes amid a rally in broader equity markets with the S&P making fresh record highs while a substantial sell-off in the greenback was further exacerbated as the government shut-down pushed out expectations for a Fed tapper this year. Subsequently, gold rebounded off key support at $1268 with the rally breaching a medium-term technical formation.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Braces for Impact as US Data Backlog Emerges
We’ve argued in favor of a significant Australian Dollar recovery since early August.

রবিবার, ২০ অক্টোবর, ২০১৩

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মঙ্গলবার, ৮ অক্টোবর, ২০১৩

EUR/USD. Forecast for October 8, 2013


Yesterday data on labor in the US was not revealed. Now it is not clear when Nonfarm Payrolls are to be issued; probably it will happen this week.   Today optimistic data on Europe is expected. Trade balance in Germany in August (at 10:00 UTC+4) is expected to be 15.1 billion euro vs. 14.5 billion in July; France’s trade balance is estimated to be -4.8 billion euro vs. -5.1 billion euro. At 14:00 UTC+4 data on Factory orders in Germany in August is issued; forecast 1.2% vs. -2.7% in July. If there is no other relevant news, the euro may enter the range 1.3591-1.3607. However, on the whole, the expectations are declining. The first target is the range 1.3537/42 (on the 4H), when the rate consolidates under it, we expect the decline to support of trend line on the daily chart, 1.3492. 

Forex: Dollar Eyes Fed-Speak, Impact of US Fiscal Woes on QE Taper Key

Talking Points
  • US Doller Recovers, Yen Declines as Markets Digest Yesterday’s Volatility
  • Quiet European, US Economic Calendar Keeps All Eyes on Washington DC
  • Fed-Speak in Focus to Gauge Impact of US Budget Impasse on QE “Taper”
Financial markets were in corrective mode in overnight trade. The US Dollar mounted a cautious recovery after posting the largest daily drop in nearly three weeks over the preceding 24 hours. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen declined as the Nikkei 225 advanced, sapping demand for the safety-linked currency. Japan’s benchmark stock index plunged 1.2 percent yesterday to hit the lowest level in five weeks.
This brief respite seems unlikely to last however as continued deadlock over US budget policy drives worries about the implications of fiscal retrenchment in the world’s largest economy on global growth. Indeed, a relatively quiet data docket in European and US hours will keep the spotlight firmly pointed at Washington DC.
S&P 500 futures are trading flat for the time being, pointing to a lack of conviction behind risk appetite trends for the time being. The situation remains fluid however, meaning an unexpected headline pointing to a breakthrough in Congressional negotiations or signaling deepening deadlock may quickly change the sentiment landscape.
A dose of “Fed-speak” represents a wildcard. Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto and PhiladelphiaFed President Charles Plosser are scheduled to speak. While neither is currently voting members of the policy-setting FOMC committee, both sit in on its meetings and may thus offer some valuable insight as traders attempt to nail down the timing of the first cutback in QE asset purchase. Commentary that touches on the impact of the US government shutdown on stimulus reduction plans ought to be particularly market-moving.
Asia Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:00
NZIER Business Opinion Survey (3Q)
38
-
32
23:01
BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (SEP)
0.7%
2.0%
1.8%
23:01
GBP
RICS House Price Balance (SEP)
54%
45%
41%
23:50
Current Account Total (¥) (AUG)
161.5B
520.0B
577.3B
23:50
JPY
Adjusted Current Account Total (¥)(AUG)
351.8B
634.1B
333.7B
23:50
JPY
BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (AUG)
-63.7%
18.1%
-12.9%
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (AUG)
-885.9B
-880.0B
-943.3B
0:30
NAB Business Confidence (SEP)
12
-
4
0:30
AUD
NAB Business Conditions (SEP)
-4
-
-7
0:30
AUD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (SEP)
0.2%
-
-2.0%
1:45
CNY
HSBC/Markit Services PMI (SEP)
52.4
-
52.8
4:30
JPY
Bankruptcies (YoY) (SEP)
-11.92%
-
-15.30%
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (SEP)
52.8
52.0
51.2
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (SEP)
54.2
50.9
51.2
5:30
AUD
Foreign Reserves (A$) (SEP)
53.0B
-
55.7B
Euro Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
5:45
Unemployment Rate (SEP)
3.0% (A)
3.0%
Medium
5:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate s.a. (SEP)
3.2% (A)
3.2%
Medium
6:00
German Trade Balance (€) (AUG)
13.1B (A)
16.2B
Low
6:00
EUR
German Current Account (€) (AUG)
9.4B (A)
14.2B
Low
6:00
EUR
German Imports s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
0.4% (A)
0.3%
Low
6:00
EUR
German Exports s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
1.0% (A)
-0.8%
Low
7:15
CHF
CPI (MoM) (SEP)
0.2%
-0.1%
Medium
7:15
CHF
CPI (YoY) (SEP)
-0.1%
0.0%
Medium
7:15
CHF
CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP)
-
-0.4%
Low
7:15
CHF
CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP)
-
0.4%
Low
7:15
CHF
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (SEP)
-
0.8%
Low
8:00
EUR
Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (2Q) (2Q)
-
7.3%
Low
10:00
EUR
German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
1.0%
-2.7%
Medium
10:00
EUR
German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
3.9%
2.0%
Medium
Critical Levels:
CCY
SUPP 3
SUPP 2
SUPP 1
Pivot Point
RES 1
RES 2
RES 3
1.3476
1.3524
1.3552
1.3572
1.3600
1.3620
1.3668
1.5898
1.5984
1.6040
1.6070
1.6126
1.6156
1.6242

সোমবার, ৭ অক্টোবর, ২০১৩

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for October 7, 2013


Today's Support and Resistance levels:
 R3: 133.21
 R2: 132.69 
R1: 132.17  
Current Spot: 131.88
 S1: 131.42 
S2: 130.96
 S3: 130.57 
Technical summary:   The pair continues to trade around the triangle resistance line. However, the important support at 131.42 is still intact and should continue to hold for a break above minor resistance at 132.17 and more importantly a break above 132.69, which confirms a new rally towards 133.48 and higher towards 134.95 and 137.45. It indicates that we have to be aware that a break below the important support at 131.42 will be very frustrating to our overall bullish picture and will call for the possibility of considerable downside pressure and indicate that the correction from the May 22 high at 133.81 is not over yet. 
 Trading recommendation:  Stay long in EUR with a stop at 131.40. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy upon a break above 132.17 with the same stop at 131.40.

রবিবার, ৬ অক্টোবর, ২০১৩

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: US Deficit Crisis Weighs FX Markets

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Volatility and Direction in US Government’s Hands
Through Friday’s close, the dollar has dropped for five consecutive weeks (the longest slide in three years) and probed a five-month low.

Euro Forecast - Should US Fiscal Tensions Eases, Euro Will Ultimately Gain
The Euro saw a dip late-week but overall remains supported by a less dovish than expected ECB. A steadying in Euro-Zone data will prevent further accommodative policy action, which will only help the Euro as it will be a sign of an economically improving Europe.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen at the Mercy of US Fiscal Monetary Policy Clues
The Japanese Yen is at the mercy of US fiscal and monetary policy trends as the government remains shuttered and investors ponder the Fed’s intent to “taper” QE.

British Pound Forecast -
British Pound May Have Set 2013 Peak – Two Key Themes to Watch
The British Pound surged to fresh year-to-date highs only to finish lower versus the US Dollar, suggesting that the previously high-flying Sterling may have set an important top through recent trading.