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Wave analysis and forecast

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 10.01 – 17.01: The pair is likely to decline.Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3884.

My opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3884 with the target of 1.33 – 1.32.

Alternative scenario: Breakdown of the level of 1.3884 will enable the price to continue growth to the level of 1.40.

Analysis: Presumably, lead-in impetus in the first wave has been formed. Locally, it is assumed that upward correction in the second wave is being formed. If this assumption is true, following completion of correction the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.33 – 1.32 within the third wave.

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 10.01 – 17.01: Uptrend maintains. Growth is likely to continue.Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6210. 

Our opinion: Buy the pair on the pullbacks above the level of 1.6210 with the target of 1.66 - 1.6750.

Alternative scenario: Breakdown of the level of 1.6210 will enable the pair to continue corrective decline to the levels of 1.61 – 1.60.

Analysis: Presumably, the third wave of the uptrend of the higher level is being formed. Locally the first wave 1 of iii has completed; it is not excluded that downward correction as the wave 2 of iii has been formed. If this assumption is true, the pair will continue to grow, without breaking crucial level of 1.6210.

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 10.01 – 17.01: The pair is likely to grow. Long-term reversal is not excluded.Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.8800.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 0.8800 with the target of 0.91 - 0.92.

Alternative scenario: Breakdown and consolidation below the level 08800 will enable the pair to continue decline to the levels of 0.87 – 0.86.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the fifth wave of diagonal in wave с) of X of the large Zigzag on the weekly timeframe, has completed. At the moment ascending impetus has been formed as the lead-in wave. If this assumption is correct, following the completion of correction it makes sense to expect continuation of growth in the third wave.

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 10.01 – 17.01: The pair is experiencing correction. Uptrend maintains.Estimated pivot point is at the level of 105.42.

Our opinion: In the short-term: sell the pair below the level of 105.42 with the target of 104.0 - 103.50. In the medium-term: wait for the completion of the downward correction. 

Alternative scenario: Breakdown of the level of 105. 42 will enable the pair to continue growth to the level of 106.0.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the extension in the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) has completed. Locally, downward correction within the fourth wave 4 of (5) is being formed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to grow to the levels of 106.0 – 107.0.

USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 10.01 – 17.01: Uptrend prevails. A chance of growth remains.Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0585.

Our opinion: In the short-term: sell the pair correction above the level of 1.07 with the target of 1.10. In the medium-term: wait for the completion of the ascending impetus.

Alternative scenario: Breakdout of the level of 1.0585 will enable the pair to continue decline to the level of 1.04, as part of correction throughout the entire growth wave.

Analysis: Rapid growth in the USD against the CAD has made reconsider wave analysis at the higher levels in favor of continuing growth. On the weekly timeframe it is possible that the third wave of global correction ABC is being formed. On the daily chart extension in the third wave (3) of 3 of C is likely to be formed. Locally, the formation of impetus as the first wave1 of (3) is nearing completion. If this assumption is true, it makes sense to expect long-term growth in the pair to the level of 1.17.

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Momentum Gathering for GBP/USD as Breakout Eyed Above 1.6260, 1.6355

Talking Points:
- UK GDP came in line with expectations at +0.8% (q/q) and +1.5% (y/y).
- Short covering rally in British Pound – every other major suffers.
- Implications for GBPUSD breakout are of high significance.

A scan of this morning’s best and worst performers via the Strong/Weak app shows that the British Pound is having an incredibly strong day, netting nearly +1000-pips cumulatively against the major currencies covered by DailyFX Research. The majority of these gains have occurred during the European session, as traders continued their rotation away from the commodity currencies (which began last Thursday) and into the European growth currencies (with price action the past three days, including today, confirming this trend).

Market participants may have been waiting for confirmation of the UK’s growth resiliency in the 3Q, as today’s figures have spurred a significant leg higher in the British Pound across the board. Notably, the GBPJPY continues to make headway after clearing the 2009 high of 163.05/15 last week.

Further gains may be difficult to come by over the next few days given thinner holiday trading conditions, but the pair is on track towards a significant Fibonacci level: the 38.2% retracement of the 2007 high to 2011 low at 168.17

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – CHART OF THE DAY
GBPUSD Weekly Chart: January 2009 to Present

The more significant price action may be occurring in the GBPUSD, which broke above its two-month sideways range top at $1.6260:

- The range, from 1.5880 to 1.6260, has governed price since the second week of September.

- While there was potential for a Double Top, it now appears that a bullish Bull Flag has been forming with respect to the July low.

- The measured move for the GBPUSD on a weekly close above 1.6260 would call for a rally into 1.6745/50, the 61.8% extension of the flag coinciding with the July 2011 highs.

- Confirmation of the upswing will be achieved with (ideally) the month of November closing above 1.6300/55, the yearly high set on the first trading day of 2013 and the descending TL off of the 2009 and 2011 highs.

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GBPUSD Range-Bound Conditions Continue

Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar stuck in trading range

The GBPUSD is still stuck in a trading range between about 1.5900 – 1.6260. Until we break outside of this range one way or the other, or get a price action signal from one of the boundaries of the range, there’s not much to do. Price has shown strength this week off 1.5900 support and could challenge 1.6260 resistance again before moving lower.

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Dollar Suffers First Two-Day Drop Since Debt Ceiling Standoff Ends

Dollar Suffers First Two-Day Drop Since Debt Ceiling Standoff Ends

We are a day away from the release of the 3Q US GDP release and two from the October NFPs – event risk that can materially alter FOMC taper forecasts and thereby the US dollar’s bearings. In the lead up, however, a lack of conviction and lingering volatility can create unusual trading conditions. The 0.1 percent slip from the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) marked the first consecutive decline for the benchmark since the deficit standoff ended October 17 and ultimately marked the turning point for a bull wave. For event risk, the past session offered up the ISM’s service sector activity survey for October. A 55.4 reading from the benchmark bested expectations, but it was the jump in the employment component that perhaps generates a little more interest in the lead up to official labor stats due Friday. The next trend we see from the dollar, carry and broader financial markets is very likely to originate from risk trends that are touched off by stimulus expectations. That leverages the importance of Fed commentary as well. It seems there is concerted effort to prepare the market for the Taper.

Euro Drops after EU Downgrades Region’s Growth, Debt Outlook

When it rains, it pours. The euro has already been pummeled this past week by souring rate expectations after the disappointing inflation report for the Euro-area. As we head into the ECB decision that will verify or dispel the resurgence of dovish fears by euro traders, there is a natural inclination for the speculative tides to moderate. Yet, the EU’s (European Union) Fall economic forecasts would ensure the concern stretched a little further. According to the authority, the group that shares the euro would grow 1.1 percent versus the 1.2 percent projected in May. More concerning, the jobless rate was seen unchanged from the current record high. Furthermore, individual member countries were looking at greater problems. Greece was still looking at a 4.0 percent contraction this year (slightly better than May’s view), Spain’s deficit ratio was expected to balloon while Ireland and Portugal are seen having issues with accessing the market.

British Pound, Yield Forecast Rise on Upgraded Growth Forecast

In direct contrast to the unfavorable turn for the Eurozone’s growth outlook, the UK was given a big boost for its own prospects. According to the Fall forecasts, the United Kingdom will grow 1.3 percent this year (previously expected to be 0.6 percent) and 2.2 percent in 2014 (previously 1.7 percent). That is a substantial upgrade, but one that we have seen reinforced by more than a few items this week. The CBI’s own upgrade last week was a smaller magnitude, but sets a similar tone. Meanwhile, the Markit service sector activity survey for October printed the highest reading since 1997. All of this translates into increased fodder for rate speculators to doubt the BoE’s cautious forecasts for rate hikes to be delayed until 2016. Meanwhile, the swaps curve has not steepened materially in response to the recent run of data – though the 10-year gilt yield jumped 3.7 percent. Perhaps this represents fundamental room for the sterling to cover after Thursday’s BoE decision…

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Weekly Forex Trading Forecast: Market Weighs Fed Taper, ECB Stimulus

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Ready for Further Gains, but What Stands in the Way?
What a difference a week makes. The US Dollar surged versus the Euro and other major forex counterparts and the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index posted its single-largest weekly gain in 5 months.

Euro Forecast – Euro Collapse Versus Dollar as Much an ECB Factor as Risk Trends
The Euro was the worst performer of the majors – and the drop it suffered was nothing short of spectacular.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Sensitive to RBA Decision and Risk Trend
We’ve argued in favor of a significant Australian Dollar recovery since early August.

Gold Forecast - Gold Sell-off Intensifies as USD Firms- GDP, NFPs, in Focus
Gold prices plummeted more than 2.6% this week with the precious metal trading at $1313 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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